Phone: +86 15951568878
Us olefins will be exported to China in large quantities
2017-02-15759
1. profits from ethane to ethylene will exceed imagination
In the United States, 96% of ethane comes from natural gas exploitation, and ethane is used in chemical production, that is, ethane is produced by steam cracking. The yield of ethane cracking to ethylene is over 70%. With the development of shale gas, the price difference between ethane and ethylene in the United States has widened to ensure the cost advantage of ethane cracking. Taking 540000 T / a ethane cracking project as an example, with an investment of US $1.5 billion and 20-year depreciation, the pre tax profit of the project is about US $810 / T, and the net profit margin is more than 40%. The profitability of the ethane cracking project in the United States is very considerable
Even if the oil price continues to fall, the ethane filter unit in the United States is still competitive, with cash cost slightly higher than that of ethane cracking in the Middle East, but far lower than that of naphtha cracking and MTO projects
By 2018, the new capacity of ethane cracking in the United States will exceed 10 million tons, and most of the projects will be located in Texas and Louisiana. In the next decade, the raw material of ethylene in the United States will mainly come from the byproduct ethane of shale gas, and the proportion of ethane cracking to ethylene will continue to increase, which is expected to exceed 80% by 2020, while the proportion of traditional naphtha to ethylene is only 4% - 5%. The U.S. has a serious excess of ethylene production capacity, downstream derivatives such as polyethylene, glycol and styrene will be exported in large quantities, while the export volume of ethylene monomer will shrink, and the global ethylene monomer trade is gradually shrinking
However, it is worth mentioning that the ethane in the United States is still surplus in addition to meeting its own demand for cracking to olefins. As the only country exporting ethane in the world, it is expected that by 2020, the United States will have a large number of ethane exports, mainly to meet the ethane cracking demand from Europe and India
At present, some companies have begun to carry out the layout of ethane export and invested in the construction of ethane transport ships. According to market news, India Xincheng has ordered six large ethane ships (vlec) to Samsung Heavy Industries, which can carry 47000 tons of liquid ethane, each of which costs about 120 million US dollars. British ship owner navigator gas plans to order eight vlec, and Shandong shipping plans to order eight vlec to transport ethane from the United States. In the next few years, the city will be There will be a large number of new vlec
II. Methanol will flow to China in large quantities
Take 1.8 million T / a natural gas filter to produce methanol as an example. According to the project investment of 1.2 billion US dollars, 20-year depreciation, the cost of raw materials per ton is about 91 US dollars, plus labor, maintenance, tax insurance, etc., the cash cost is about 125 US dollars / ton, and the net profit is about 180 US dollars / ton. Such high profit benefits from the rich and cheap natural gas resources in the United States, which makes the project competitive Relatively strong
Due to the shale gas chemical industry revolution and good economy, methanol production in the United States is booming, and the restart, expansion and construction of units are numerous. It is estimated that in 2017, the new methanol production capacity of the United States will exceed 10 million tons, and the natural gas production of the United States is expected to reach 12 million tons in 2020, while the demand is only 7.5 million tons. The United States has rapidly changed from a methanol importing country to a net exporting country. Nearly 4.5 million tons of methanol will be exported to Northeast Asia, and most of the methanol will flow to China for the development of China's MTO projects
III. cost advantage of propane dehydrogenation
The byproduct propylene from naphtha to ethylene is the main source of traditional propylene (1 ton naphtha steam cracking to ethylene will byproduct 0.13 ton propylene). However, with the light-weight of raw materials, that is, the proportion of ethane as steam cracking raw materials increases, resulting in the decrease of propylene production by-product of steam cracking, of which the propylene supply in 2015 was 4.2 million tons, about 3 million tons less than that in 2010
The yield of propylene, a byproduct of naphtha steam cracking, is relatively low, while the yield of propylene produced by propane dehydrogenation (PDH) as a mature technology is over 80%. Based on a set of 600000 T / a PDH of US $550 million and depreciation of 20 years, the pre tax profit of North America PDH project is about US $500 / T, and the net profit margin is close to 30%, which is very profitable. With the fluctuation of oil price, PDH still has a strong cost advantage compared with naphtha cracking
The PDH project is basically located in Texas, the United States. By 2020, the propylene production capacity of the United States will exceed 5 million tons, which will bring about about 3 million tons of propylene supply, which just makes up for the loss of the by-product propylene of naphtha to ethylene after the lightweight of raw materials in the United States
From the perspective of propane supply and demand in the United States, the supply and demand pattern began to change in 2010, and the supply gradually exceeded the demand. By 2020, there will be about 30 million tons of propane net exports, far more than 19 million tons in the Middle East.
In the future, LPG sea freight from the US Gulf to the Far East will be greatly reduced. On the one hand, as a large number of LPG ships are put into operation, there will be a serious surplus of transportation capacity in the next few years; on the other hand, with the expansion of Panama Canal, an important hub from Meiwan to Asia, the voyage from vlgc to the Far East in Meiwan will be greatly shortened, and the freight will be reduced accordingly
In general, the net equivalent export of ethylene in the United States will increase from 4 million tons in 2016 to 10 million tons in 2020, and the net equivalent export of propylene will increase from 2 million tons in 2016 to 3 million tons in 2020, most of which will be exported to China, forming a strong impact on the olefin market in China
Products center
Contact Us
In the oil, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem Group, a non-standard equipment suppliers.
Brand-name products in Jiangsu," "National Customer Satisfaction Brand" and the honorary title of the winner.
Brand-name products in Jiangsu," "National Customer Satisfaction Brand" and the honorary title of the winner.
- E-mail：unite@unitefilter.com
- Address：No. 24 all the way,industrial park,new area,Wuxi
Copyright © 2018 Jiangsu Unite Filtration Equipment Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 苏ICP备16037675号